Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA

The Chinese market is in a dump. The 5% single-day plunge yesterday was one of the worst in the past 3 years — a 2.65-sigma event. Many are blaming the bursting semi bubble and the French, but Chinese economic data are better than expected, and yields are at historical lows. Given that this year’s growth target is within reach, policy support will be more directly market-related than traditional stimulus. Recently, large buy-ins in broad-based ETFs clearly signal the national team at work. An overlooked catalyst for the selloff is the SFC investigation into irregular IPO activity. The SFC found that many IPO subscription processes had been rigged to create a false appearance of oversubscription. It's basically a pump-and-dump scheme. By some estimates, over half of the IPOs involved some form of rigging. Such frauds undermine market confidence, harm retail investors' interests, and could trigger a sell-off due to investigations and penalties. Tax law changes around rich Chinese offshore family trusts and potential penalties also didn't help. There are many catalysts for the selloff. Every snowflake is guilty when there is an avalanche. HK valuations are now <10x, vs. the US at >19x. We warned of an accelerated late-stage selloff in this episode of our monthly podcast. The good news is that the harder the selloff, the stronger the rebound later. $FXI $KWEB $EWH $PGJ $BABA $CQQQ $YINN $YANG $ASHR

【Monthly China Market Strategy with Julius Baer】Recent market plunge has reignited debate over economic data, semi bubble, policy stimulus and the outlook for growth. In this episode, we examine what the prospects about policy stimulus, economic outlook, technological ambitions, export outlook, the impact of escalating trade friction and the bursting semi bubble. $FXI $KWEB $EWH $PGJ $BABA $CQQQ $YINN $YANG $ASHR https://t.co/KjS82Ym0bx

【洪灝与瑞士宝盛的月度对话】近日全球市场大幅波动，再次引发市场对消费信心、政策刺激力度以及经济增长前景的广泛讨论。 数据释放了哪些经济讯号？房地产市场能否企稳复苏？科技发展战略与出口前景将如何影响增长动能？与此同时，贸易摩擦持续升温，又将为中国市场及投资环境带来哪些挑战与机遇？展望第四季度，什么时候反弹？有什么样的风险？市场共识忽略了什么？有哪些板块值得投资者关注？(中文版并非英文版的简单翻译) 今夜秋风至，火烧上弦月。 https://t.co/wmy5HcVCu2

In the past few years, whenever Vice Premier He Lifeng met with Ray Dalio, the Shanghai Composite either bottomed out or rebounded strongly. $FXI $KWEB $CQQQ $BABA $EWH $YINN $YANG $PGJ https://t.co/1SULBPEWQi

Chinese stocks did another V-shaped intraday reversal today, the second time in 3 trading days. If no incremental policies are expected, market stability around 3,800 will be a concrete measure of the government's performance. The level of ~3,800 should be a dependable bottom - at least in the bear term. $FXI $KWEB $BABA $CQQQ $EWH $YINN $YANG https://t.co/zXz3xgHWhW